Study warns of 400,000 jobs losses in retail in UK amid pandemic

Nearly 400,000 retail jobs could be cut on high streets in cities and towns across the United Kingdom due to the coronavirus pandemic and its impacts, a study shows.

Analysis by economists at KPMG suggests the jobs would be lost as the pandemic has forced many people to work from home and shop online.

The research by the accountancy firm KPMG shows that a shift towards home working will become permanent following the pandemic and its effects will be worse for affluent towns in the south.

Some places would record a greater decline in commuter footfall than others, which in turn, would accelerate the hollowing-out of high street shopping in those locations.

Out of the 109 towns and cities studied by firm, Bracknell - home to big technology firms including Fujitsu and Dell, and a popular base for London office workers - was predicted to be most at risk of having the most significant declines in retail employment.

The pandemic would decrease the flow of commuters into towns and cities by between 10 percent and 27 percent on pre-coronavirus levels, KPMG estimates.

As a consequence, high streets could lose between 20 to 40 percent of their shops, cafes and other businesses, affecting up to 5 percent of the local workforce and in excess of 400,000 jobs, the firm says.

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KPMG also warned the UK government that the shifting trends the pandemic has caused would have far-reaching consequences for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s leveling-up agenda.

“The challenge for government, as it turns its focus to the leveling-up agenda, is to incorporate the changes brought about by the pandemic into its strategy,” said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK.

“The pandemic has added a new dimension to the leveling-up agenda. While some of the more deprived areas may be less impacted by the pandemic directly, as they had a smaller proportion of office workers and retail space to start with in their centers, they will still need to rethink their path for growth in light of the changes brought about by it. 

“Our findings offer only a glimpse of locations’ starting point. It highlights some of those that may need to go further in developing new ways to attract people to their centres compared to others where the offering is already relatively rich.”

Meanwhile, some analysts have suggested that the shift could help smaller towns and cities to emerge stronger from the pandemic since fewer people might need to travel to big cities such as London, Birmingham and Manchester.  

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