UK worse off in all Brexit scenarios: Leaked report

The UK will be worse off in all possible scenarios after leaving the European Union (EU), a leaked government report has revealed.

Obtained by BuzzFeed News, the document is dated January 2018 and reviews three scenarios that, based on the existing arrangements with the EU, are most likely to happen after Brexit.

The secret report states that in a “no deal” scenario, where just like Prime Minister Theresa May has threatened the UK would simply walk away from the EU talks and proceed with the divorce, Britain would experience a 8-percent drop in growth over the next 15 years after reverting to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

In case the two sides can agree on a free trade agreement, the UK’s growth would take a 5-percent hit over the same period according to current forecasts.

The softest Brexit scenario would see the UK maintain its access to the EU Single Market through membership of the European Economic Area, like Norway, an option that May has already ruled out but would cut growth by only 2 percent in the long run.

The report, dubbed EU Exit Analysis — Cross Whitehall Briefing, is put together by government analysts and predicts that financial services, chemicals, clothing, manufacturing, food and drink, cars and retailing will be among the sectors worst hit after Brexit.

May’s ministers were going to be briefed with the new economic analysis of Brexit’s impact, according to the UK media.

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Tory Brexiters dismissed the report, which is expected to give a stronger voice to the supporters of a soft Brexit, like Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose party has called for keeping the single market access.

Matthew Pennycook, the shadow Brexit minister, said in reaction to the leak that May must publish the government’s updated analysis.

“Labour has made clear since the referendum that Tory ministers cannot withhold vital information from parliament and the public about the impact of different Brexit scenarios on jobs and the economy,” he said in a statement.

Welsh party Plaid Cymru also called for the report to be published.

‘May needs to go’

Meanwhile, a number of the top Tory donors called on May to step down for her many failures.

“I think it’s obvious now there is no future for her. She needs to go. And as I’m being honest, the quicker the better. We have all lost confidence in her and it is bad for business for her to linger on in there. We all know she is going to go. She may as well just book the removal lorry and move on,” said Mullins.

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