German reluctance to back US war against Iran signals deepening transatlantic rift: Analyst

By Alireza Kamandi

As the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran continues to reshape geopolitical alliances, Germany’s position as a traditional American ally in Europe has come under renewed scrutiny.

This transatlantic rift is no longer just diplomatic tetchiness, according to an analyst.

Dr. Frank Umbach, the head of the program for International Energy Security at the Centre for European Security Strategies (CESS GmbH) in Munich and a consultant to German ministries of foreign affairs and defense, made these remarks in an interview with the Press TV website.

He said Berlin’s reluctance to provide logistical support to the US in the war against Iran stems from a fundamental breakdown in the American-European alliance.

German and other European governments have argued that “it is not our war,” pointing to the fact that they were not given advance notice as would be expected within the NATO framework.

However, this does not mean Europe is indifferent to the crisis. As the world’s second-largest exporting economy, Germany remains acutely dependent on free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained closed to US and allied ships since the unprovoked and illegal war was launched on Iran in late February.

Dr. Umbach also noted that Germany appears to view the US as a less reliable strategic partner.

This perception has been reinforced by the withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Germany, a move described by the German Chancellor as part of a broader pattern in which “the US is being humiliated by Iran’s leadership.”

The Trump administration had already called for higher European defense budgets and greater responsibility for Europe’s own security, citing a strategic pivot to Asia.

The troop reduction, therefore, was not entirely surprising. However, after the German Chancellor voiced strong criticism of the US policies towards Iran, Trump suggested that the withdrawal numbers might increase further.

On the question of energy security, the analyst said 89 percent of all oil and 83 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Persian Gulf states go to Asia.

Nevertheless, a prolonged blockade – lasting months – could lead to jet fuel shortages in Europe.

More indirectly, Europe would suffer economically from disruptions to Asia’s supply chains, on which European industries heavily rely.

Furthermore, any worldwide spike in oil and LNG prices would force Europe to pay significantly higher costs for its fossil fuel imports, creating substantial economic pressure even without a direct supply cut-off.

Regarding the impact of US-Israeli military aggression against Iran, Dr. Umbach said the war may have paradoxically strengthened Iran’s political structure, both domestically and in its fight against the US and Israel.

This development, he said, represents a strategic consequence that Western policymakers may have underestimated.

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