Trump’s military gamble against Iran backfires spectacularly with no exit strategy

By Abbas Ali Abedi

The American-Israeli unprovoked and illegal war of aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, now into its 16th day, is a reckless military gamble that is backfiring spectacularly.

A coalition built on lies and astonishing arrogance is learning an important lesson the hard way: Iran does not break, but it fights back and imposes high costs on the aggressors.

On Friday, US War Secretary Pete Hegseth snootily claimed that Iranian leaders are hiding underground "like rats." He tried to frame them as leaders who are not among the people.

Just hours later, the world watched with astonishment as top Iranian officials, including the president, security chief, judiciary chief, and foreign minister, walked openly in the streets of Tehran, joining hundreds of thousands for the annual International Quds Day rally.

Fighter jets roared overhead and launched some strikes, tragically killing a young mother, yet the leadership remained visible and defiant. Judiciary chief Mohseni Ejei was speaking to a TV reporter when the bomb went off. He stood still, unfazed and undeterred, continuing the conversation with remarkable poise and courage.

Top security official Ali Larijani, who now has a $10 million bounty on his head, walked for miles and gave media interviews as well. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also smiled for the cameras and spoke to some reporters. The scenes were amazing, reinforcing the image of the Iranian nation as one that has never surrendered to any power in history.

Unlike Israeli regime officials and military commanders, who direct wars from underground bunkers, Iran's leaders have never gone underground. There are no such bunkers in Iran. The martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution himself refused to go underground.

The US-Israeli narrative of a cowering Iranian leadership lies in ruins. This defiance is not merely symbolic. On the battlefield, Iran is translating its resolve into devastating military action.

Thirteen days into this unprovoked war of aggression, launched in the middle of Geneva nuclear talks, Iran has now unleashed 52 waves of Operation True Promise 4, with the most recent wave targeting more than ten hiding places of Zionist army leaders in Haifa, Caesarea, and the military-industrial complex in Holon.

Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) aerospace commander Major General Majid Mousavi on Friday revealed that 30 super-heavy ballistic missiles struck occupied territories overnight while believers were immersed in Shab e Qadr prayers (Night of Destiny), obliterating the regime's key surveillance systems and leaving it further exposed and vulnerable.

Having used older missile stocks in the initial days of the war, Iran is now introducing more advanced weaponry, including Khorramshahr, Khaibar Shekan, Emad, and Qadr missiles. As Parliament Speaker and veteran IRGC commander Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf hinted in a social media post on Friday, the worst nightmares for Israeli settlers are yet to come.

The battlefield extends far beyond occupied Palestine. From day one, Iranian missiles have pounded US occupation bases across the region – in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, and Kuwait. In the 36th wave, the IRGC destroyed the operational infrastructure of the US military, targeting the Fifth Fleet, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and the Harir base in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Significant damage has been inflicted on infrastructure and personnel despite strict Western media censorship. At Al Udeid base, Iran successfully destroyed the sophisticated FP-132 radar system, capable of tracking ballistic missiles at ranges exceeding 5,000 kilometers.

Independent estimates suggest US fatalities are in the hundreds, if not thousands, with Israeli deaths reaching thousands. The infamous Hannibal Directive is known to everyone. The regime treats human lives as expendable collateral, including the lives of its own settlers.

On Thursday, Iranian air defenses downed a US refueling aircraft in western Iraq, killing six crew members on board. The UAE has been the hardest hit, being the launch pad for many acts of aggression against Iran and home to a heavy American and Israeli presence. The Dubai dream is over. Western holidays and honeymoons in the country are finished.

The economic toll is becoming politically toxic. The Trump administration estimated the first six days cost $11 billion – a figure that has likely doubled as advanced radar systems were crippled by Iranian strikes. Analysts warn that if the war continues, costs could approach $100 billion in the coming weeks as Iran is fully ready for any eventuality.

American taxpayers and the MAGA base, already strained by soaring oil prices following the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, will not forgive this easily. Middle-class households in the US, Europe, and Asia are feeling the pinch. Turkey has already released 11.6 million barrels of crude from strategic reserves as part of emergency coordination, and the Trump administration is easing sanctions on Russian oil, but that won't be enough.

Trump will face accountability for his foolhardy adventurism in the upcoming midterms.

Strategically, Washington is losing its allies for dragging them into an unnecessary war that even the US Congress didn't approve. Reports indicate US allies in the Persian Gulf are increasingly frustrated with Trump for dragging them into this war. Some of them are currently reviewing their overseas investments and future commitments due to security concerns.

After losing European allies over the Ukraine war, the US president is now alienating partners in the Persian Gulf region due to his imprudent military adventurism based on lies.

What was the justification for this war? The tired, debunked claim of Iran seeking nuclear weapons. US intelligence reports have repeatedly contradicted this narrative.

Iran's martyred Leader issued a clear fatwa against nuclear arms, and Iranian officials have repeatedly asserted that the country does not need nuclear weapons. The Omani-mediated talks, intended to reaffirm Iran's peaceful energy needs, were hijacked by the Netanyahu-Trump axis of evil, a smokescreen for a 47-year-old "regime change" obsession that has failed repeatedly since 1979. Even US intelligence estimates suggest Iran is far from producing a nuclear weapon, yet the Trump administration went ahead with the aggression.

Now, there is a new Leader in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei's first public message on Thursday resonated with historic weight. His message proved that Trump's fantasy of "regime change" will never materialize. Iran is no Syria or Venezuela.

The new Leader is extraordinarily courageous, wise, and resolute. He vowed to avenge the blood of martyrs, including 165 schoolchildren massacred in Minab, and pointed out that studies have been conducted regarding opening other fronts where the enemy has little experience and will be extremely vulnerable if the war drags on.

While emphasizing Iran's desire for warm ties with neighbors, he made clear that countries hosting US bases must clarify their position with the aggressors. Following his predecessor's path, he will not be cowed.

If necessity demands, the window for Iran to acquire nuclear capability may no longer remain closed – a debate now openly discussed within policy circles after the June 2025 war demonstrated that even deeply buried facilities remain vulnerable.

For now, Iran has ruled out a ceasefire. Trump's relentless war rhetoric and continued attacks on civilian infrastructure – schools, hospitals, heritage sites, power grids, and oil depots – have made de-escalation impossible.

Dialogue is off the table while Trump occupies the White House and likely beyond. The past two unprovoked attacks came in the middle of nuclear diplomacy.

Retaliatory operations will continue until aggressors are fully reprimanded. Iran now controls the skies over occupied territories, striking with surgical precision, especially after the regime's much-touted air defense systems were dismantled.

Hezbollah has joined the front too, with amazing power, as have Iraqi resistance groups, and the IRGC has addressed the American people directly: "The achievements of seventy years of American administrations in the region have evaporated in less than eleven days."

This is not Iran's war alone. It is a fight for all peoples opposed to US neocolonialism and Trump's banditry – from Gaza to Venezuela, Cuba and beyond.

The aggressors wanted a quick, decisive victory. Instead, they have ignited a regional inferno, lost their allies, bankrupted their treasuries, displaced millions, and awakened a resistance that will not rest until justice is served in letter and spirit.

Thus, the "rats" Hegseth referred to are not in Tehran but in Washington and Tel Aviv, scrambling to escape the nightmare they created.

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