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Analyst: 2022 will be telling as to whether Trump runs or not in 2024

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)
Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s former attorney, says the former Republican US president will not run for the White House again in 2024, because “his fragile ego cannot stand to be considered a two-time loser.” (Photo by Reuters)

American political analyst Myles Hoenig says former US President Donald Trump enjoys being behind the scenes stirring up trouble for the Republican Party, but 2022 will be telling as to whether Trump runs or not in 2024.

Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney, has said that the former Republican US president will not run for the White House again in 2024, because “his fragile ego cannot stand to be considered a two-time loser.”

This is while Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, thinks he will run for the office again, with a path to victory through five states he lost to Joe Biden in the disputed 2020 election. The states are Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, The Guardian reported on Tuesday. 

According to official results, Trump lost the five states by narrow margins, but he refuses to accept, claiming that Biden “stole” the election from him with the help of certain elements in the Washington establishment.   

Cohen, however, told CNN on Monday, “Donald will not run.”

“Why? Because first of all, he has an incredibly fragile ego. He lost by 9m votes the first time [actually a little more than 7m]. He will lose by more than 9m the second and his fragile ego cannot stand to be considered a two-time loser,” he added.

Cohen pointed to Trump’s political fundraising, which has brought in more than $100 million.

Trump has been casting doubt on the outcome of his loss by insisting it was the result of fraud. He has said that the 2020 presidential election was “the greatest Election Hoax in history.”

“There are two schools of thought on whether Trump will run again. In spite of Michael Cohen's prediction that he will not, it seems that the argument for running is in the lead, at least according to the mainstream media that survives on such controversies,” Hoenig said.

“Cohen believes that he would not be able to handle being a two-time loser. However, in Trump's mind, he did not lose in 2020 and that he also won with the popular vote in 2016. His anger would be directed at the electoral system that denies him what he believes would be a rightful return to the White House, not the rightful position that the people voted against him,” he stated.

“What might be a reason for not running has as much to do with ego but not the case for losing. Right now, in the Republican Party, he is a kingmaker. He is deciding which candidate will be the Republican Party's nominee for the 2022 elections, and could strongly influence who would be the presidential candidate. And, of course, if that candidate won, it would be the man behind the throne that runs things, not the president,” the analyst said.  

“Those who believe he will run go with the argument that Biden swing states could more easily flip to Trump. 2022 will be very telling and might present itself as an argument for him running. How the economy shakes out in a year from now will be a major factor, as most Americans vote their pocketbook,” he stated.

“One major factor in whether he runs is seeing who will be the next Speaker of the House. If it's a Republican majority, it will be fraught with palace intrigue, with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and other Trump loyalists threatening House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy for the speakership if he does not toe the Trump line. This is what drives Trump's ego, probably more than running for president. It keeps the pressure off him and onto his followers and those afraid of his followers,” he noted.

‘Downside to Trump's strategy’

“There is also a downside to Trump's strategy. If McCarthy's speakership is threatened, and a more irrational, sociopathic candidate is nominated, there would likely be enough Republicans to vote against him or her. In fact, it is hard to see any Trump loyalist winning that seat,” Hoenig said.

“It would not be unreasonable to expect all the Democrats and a handful (enough) of Republican 'moderates' to compromise for a right-wing Democrat, with so many to choose from. Even the idea of appointing Trump or another outsider to that position would likely go down in flames, as it would then be another two years before the next election for voters to take their revenge out on them. But after a while, the Trump aura could be diminishing and enough Republicans just might begin to shy away from the Trump mystique,” he said.

“So overall, it is up in the air as to whether Trump will run again,” the analyst concluded.


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