Israel, loser of any anti-Iran scenario: US intelligence analyst
Sat Nov 3, 2012 11:57AM
We have two options, slinking away or playing American politics. Either way, Israel has spent its last “five cents” of credibility."For the past three years, Israel has not only demanded sanctions but has threatened to carry out a unilateral attack on Iran and has clearly used every form of psychological warfare, false flag terrorism and deceit to push the United States, France and NATO into an attack on Iran as Israel’s proxies. Now, with Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s statements this week, we are supposed to forget the whole thing. Israel was just joking. Mind you, the sanctions are still in place although it is clearly admitted that there was no reason for them in the first place. Even rabid Zionist, Mitt Romney, is “back pedaling” on his debate threats like a marionette. Obama is not much different, though intelligent enough not to officially announce that he is a dupe. The story lasted one day, Barak’s statement, as Netanyahu, who has railed about Iranian nuclear weapons being “days away” for 20 years, also knew enough to keep his mouth shut.
Israel now claims that they believe Iran is not building a nuclear weapon after all but plan to attack them anyway, perhaps some time next summer, depending on weather, holiday schedules and, perhaps, the results of the US presidential election.Only Israel would announce that there is no reason to attack in the first place, admit they have lied for 20 years and then have the chutzpah to put off an act of rabid insanity that we all know they were never capable of in the first place. Let us look at the timing. Even though American elections are notoriously rigged, it does not take a genius to see that Israel’s candidate, Mitt Romney, is in trouble. Those who follow American news now know that the murder of Ambassador Stephens in Benghazi was the real “October Surprise” planned to rig the election. Webster Tarpley directly blames Mormons within the CIA, working directly with the Romney campaign. I contend they are working with Israel and Netanyahu’s extremist elements. There is no other nation that could both plan and execute such a brutal act, then use their media assets to try to spin this into an endless series of totally contradictory and utterly absurd conspiracy theories. America’s own rabidly insane are outraged, each with a wilder version of the planned murder of the American ambassador, Chris Stephens, all too utterly doped up with ignorance to look for who gains and who loses. America did not end up where it is today without considerable idiotic complicity from those at home. The first announcement came three days ago from the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak. He announced that Israel now officially believes that Iran is not building a nuclear bomb. His source? He has no source, no assurances he did not have before. Barak simply made it all up. Why? We might want to look at Israel’s “assets” at work and their methodology. The claims of the “thousands of spinning centrifuges” that Romney referred to in the most recent presidential debate, each one creating, in his mind at least, the 95% plus Uranium 235 needed to build a nuclear weapon. In fact, the IAEA source they quote most often is David Albright. The following is from Mr. Albright’s (Not “Dr. Albright”) Wikipedia profile: “A National Journal profile in 2004 called Albright a “go-to guy for media people seeking independent analysis on Iraq’s [weapons of mass destruction] programs.” Clinton Bastin, a longtime associate of Albright and 40-year project manager in nuclear weapons design for the Department of Energy had the following to say about Albright's qualifications: “‘David Albright, a physicist, former colleague, president of the non-government Institute for Science and International Security in Washington and a former consultant for IAEA inspectors, is recognized by the US news media as an expert on nuclear weapons but is not. I called David several months ago to correct inaccurate information attributed to him by New York Times reporter William J. Broad. I also mentioned that Pakistan probably did not have many nuclear weapons because gun-type weapons require about 100 pounds of highly enriched uranium. David said that he had seen drawings of Pakistan’s weapons and they had solid cores but were implosion, not gun-type. With that statement, I realized that David did not understand basic concepts of nuclear weapons.’” There is no information that was not there months ago, years ago, other than, just perhaps, that Iran’s air defenses are quite likely to end up handing a group of Israeli pilots over to Iran, a bit “the worse for wear” after having their planes shot down by air defenses that exceed their own. What Israel believes, true or not, is that Iran has not only upgraded its own defenses but now possess, according to sources in the Israeli regime, three S-400 launchers. Nearly three weeks ago, Russia’s Chairman of the Russian Defense Ministry's Public Council, Igor Korotchenko, made it clear that defensive military hardware, including air defense systems, are not covered by UN sanctions. Russia’s recent sales of advanced defensive military equipment now totals $13 billion, a fact kept out of all Western press outlets. The S-400 uses three different missiles with a range up to 250 miles. It is between 96 and 98% effective against stealth aircraft that Israel has yet to take delivery of and is equally effective against ICBMs and “cruise type” missiles. Last month, Navy Times admitted: “Iran’s high-flying ballistic missiles could overwhelm U.S. missile defenses in the Persian Gulf, where much of the world’s oil passes. Its fast-attack boats could swarm a large warship and sink it. And its fleet of hard-to-find submarines carry torpedoes faster than any torpedo in the U.S. fleet.”
From either a tactical or strategic standpoint, Israel’s new position on Iran still appears as disingenuous. Is this simply skulking away in a cowardly fashion when America, seen as the “neighborhood bully” refused to fight for them?Is this a plot to make Israel’s stooge, Romney, seem less bellicose to a nation sickened by war? Another issue, one overlooked and yet vital is the verbal promises made by American presidential candidates from both parties to defend Israel if Israel is attacked. In fact, if Israel attacks Iran and Iran retaliates, the United States would not be allowed to retaliate against Iran despite the pronouncements. Moreover, attacks on any nation that would allow Israel to use their airspace would also not be covered by any mutual defense agreements. Iran would be free to devastate, let us say, Saudi military bases, their desalinization plants, oil production and refining facilities and any power generation infrastructure. Saudi Arabia would actually be in the Middle Ages, a time their political system has always dwelled in anyway. As for Israel, they only have nuclear, biological and chemical weapons on their ballistic missiles, weapons they would not be able to use. A predictable scenario would involve Russia and China racing to see who could bring more air defenses to Iran, knowing that every American built Israeli plane shot down would lessen American prestige and influence in the region. Any threats to use strategic weapons would be countered by Pakistan, backed by China and would bring about an immediate end to Israel’s treaty with Egypt at a time when Israel would be unprepared to deal with such a contingency. The year 1973, when the entire US Air Force and Navy barely saved Israel, when history books sought to reflect the actual reasons for the oil embargo against the United States, would seem like a holiday. Thus, we have two options, slinking away or playing American politics. Either way, Israel has spent its last “five cents” of credibility. GD/HJL/IS