Econ crisis prevents war against Iran
Wed, 22 Oct 2008 11:47:40 GMT
The global financial crisis has made it highly unlikely for the US or Israel to take military action against Iran over its nuclear program.
Sam Gardiner, a retired US Air Force colonel who runs war games for government agencies, says recent developments including the financial meltdown have forced drastic changes in Washington's agenda.
According to Gardiner, the Russia-Georgia conflict and US military operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan are also among the factors that have prompted change in the US agenda.
"The consensus among American decision-makers is that bombing Iran is not the path to pursue right now. I see players being more and more cautious about the consequences to fragile economies of an oil spike," Reuters quoted Gardiner as saying.
The US and Israel have long alleged that a nuclear Iran would pose an existential threat to Tel Aviv. Under this pretext, the two staunch allies have studied various game plans to strike nuclear installations in the country.
Iran, a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), says it has never sought a nuclear weapon, stressing that weapons of mass destruction have no place in its defensive doctrine.
Mark Stoker, a defense economist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, has also ruled out the possibility of any military action against Iran.
"It stands to reason that it (an offensive against Iran) would be expensive, and they (US forces) are already doing a lot," Stoker said.
Diplomats and analyst warn that any attack on Iran would trigger a greater worldwide crisis should Tehran halt its oil exports.
Some analysts had earlier predicted that Israel would attack Iran after the November 4 US presidential elections and before the successor to President George W. Bush takes office.
"We have made it clear that an offensive option against Iran is not something we want contemplated at this time," said a US diplomat who has had extensive dealings with Israel.
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