Oil prices predicted to reach triple-digit level
Mon, 26 Oct 2009 07:12:01 GMT
A Deutsche Bank economist predicts oil prices to reach $100 a barrel sometime in the next two quarters as the US dollar continues losing value against the euro.
"We think the dollar could weaken further to $1.60 against the euro and it implies pushing oil prices to that threatening triple-digit level," Adam Sieminski told Reuters on Sunday.
A fragile dollar could signify that "oil prices have even further to run," Deutsche Bank said in a research note adding that a surge to $100 a barrel may hurt a global economic recovery.
"We believe that $80 oil is not high enough to derail the global recovery, but our economics team would start looking for weaker overall consumption at $100 a barrel prices," the note said.
Last week, oil prices spiked to a one-year peak of 82 dollars amid plunging US gasoline reserves and the weakening dollar.
The falling greenback makes dollar-priced oil cheaper for buyers holding stronger currencies, and therefore tends to stimulate crude demand and prices.
Meanwhile, OPEC members would be willing to control the oil price by raising output, although it is a hard decision to implement considering their refinery capacities.
"OPEC may want to calm the market with more crude, but it's not clear that refiners have an appetite to take it," Sieminski wrote.
Iran's OPEC governor said Tuesday that the oil-producing group is unlikely to raise output unless demand sees a rise before it meets in December.
"There's no shortage of oil in the market," he said, adding that OPEC was unlikely to increase production in a bid to push down prices.
OPEC members are scheduled to meet in Angola in December to decide on their future quotas. The 12-member body last met in September and decided to leave output unchanged as prices were at satisfactory levels.
MVZ/SC/DT