A hard Brexit will present a wide range of challenges and difficulties

There appears to be no end to gloomy stories about the immediate consequences of a no-deal Brexit. In the latest prediction, retailers have warned of shortages of fresh food resulting in price rises.

The consequences of a no-deal Brexit are not just confined to Britain. The Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Leo Varadkar, has tried to reassure the Irish public about the implications of a no-deal Brexit, claiming that it would not trigger recession nor necessitate the return of austerity.

Media scaremongering aside, what are the real risks of a no-deal Brexit? Most of the reliable information can be gleaned from the government’s Operation Yellowhammer documents, parts of which were leaked to the media in mid-August.

Yellowhammer is the codename used by the Treasury for cross-government civil contingency planning in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Based on the partial leak of Yellowhammer documents in mid-August, and other reliable data, here is a list of five core expected Brexit-related shortages and difficulties in order of importance:

1. Food: according to Yellowhammer, critical elements in certain food supply chains (such as ingredients, chemicals and packaging) will be adversely affected, leading to higher prices, but not necessarily shortages. The supply of some types of fresh/perishable foods is expected to decrease, but not hugely.
2. Medicines: due to expected disruption at the Channel border crossing point with France, there will be a significant impact on the importation of medicine and medical supplies, at least for six months.
3. Fuel: no-deal Brexit means the imposition of tariffs on many essential goods and supplies, notably petrol. But in this vital area it will be UK petrol exports to the European Union (EU) which will become uncompetitive due to the imposition of tariffs. This may lead to the closure of two British oil refineries, with the predicted loss of 2,000 jobs.
4. Transportation: there is widely expected to be significant disruption at the Channel crossing point with France. The disruption is expected to last three months and may affect 85 percent of lorries travelling across the Channel in both directions.
5. Immigration: in the immediate aftermath of Brexit there are likely to be stepped up immigration checks both in Britain and on the continent. What is less certain is the mid to long-term consequences, especially in relation to the status of British expatriates living in EU countries and vice versa.

This list is not exhaustive and, crucially, it does not include long-term political and strategic issues, notably the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. A no-deal Brexit will almost certainly lead to the return of a “hard” border between the Republic and British-controlled Northern Ireland.

In terms of the Irish question, the political and strategic consequences of a “hard” border are difficult to calculate at this stage, but the return of border controls will at minimum strengthen calls for Irish unity and the end of British rule in Northern Ireland.

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