Republicans using immigration to scare US voters to the polls: Data

People cast their ballots at a community center during early voting October 25, 2018 in Potomac, Maryland, two weeks ahead of the key US midterm polls. (AFP photo)

The US Republican Party is attempting to maintain control of Congress by following the lead of President Donald Trump and turning to rhetoric about immigrants as a tactic to scare and motivate voters in November’s midterm congressional elections.

Congressional Republicans seeking re-election have dramatically increased the number of tweets they post about immigration since Trump’s election, a Reuters/Ipsos analysis of social media shows.

Immigration messaging has surged across the spectrum of Republican-held districts – highly competitive swing seats and reliably Republican ones, in places with immigrant populations both large and small.

The scope of that strategy is visible from a Reuters examination of political ads, candidates’ social media posts and polling, as well as dozens of interviews with candidates, voters and campaign strategists.

“We need tough immigration enforcement to keep dangerous criminals out,” says the ad by a national conservative political group.

The ad is part of an effort to help a Republican challenger, Mike Braun, oust a Democratic incumbent in the state of Indiana and capture a US Senate seat.

In races from California to Florida, Republicans have spent millions of dollars into advertising that depict illegal immigrants as criminals and vowed enthusiastic support for Trump’s proposed wall at the Mexican border, the Reuters review shows.

This year, 20 percent of pro-Republican ads in congressional races have cited immigration, according to an analysis of broadcast advertising data.

Spending on Republican ads that mention immigration has more than doubled to $62.4 million this year from the 2014 elections and has quadrupled since the 2010 races, the advertising data shows.

US midterm elections take place at the halfway point during each presidential term and usually experience weak turnout due to a lack of enthusiasm. But Trump’s election in 2016, has made Americans more engaged than ever with the polarized political climate.

Americans' anger at Trump may help Democrats gain more seats in Congress after the elections in November, , Reuters/Ipsos polling data shows.

Opinion polls show Democrats have a chance at achieving the net gain of 23 seats they need to win a majority in the US House of Representatives. They have a longer shot at the Senate, where they need a gain of two seats, but are defending 26 seats, including 10 in states Trump won in 2016.


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