Poll: Labour could win 1.5mn votes more by backing new Brexit referendum

The Labour Party could gain an additional 1.5 million votes and dozens of seats in the British Parliament if it campaigned for a new Brexit referendum, a new poll has found.

The survey, carried out by YouGov, found that 26% of people said they would be more likely to vote Labour if it campaigned for a “peoples’ vote,” against 6% who said they would be less likely.

YouGov calculated this to mean that the party would gain just over 1.5 million votes overall, with an extra 1.7 million people supporting the party and around 200,000 withdrawing their support.

If this new support was evenly distributed across constituencies the extra 2,400 votes per area would win Labour about 66 more parliamentary seats, just enough for a majority if other seats were not lost, based on the 2017 election.

The former YouGov president Peter Kellner, who analysed the data, said that while some Labour MPs argue backing a second referendum could cost the party net votes, the poll figures do not bear this out.

The poll “leaves no doubt that by backing a popular vote on Brexit, the party would end up making significant gains in votes and seats,” he said.

A second study by ICM of specific constituencies indicated such a pledge would see Labour win enough votes to hold and make gains in marginal constituencies – even in those that backed leaving the EU.

The two separate polls came as Theresa May’s push to win support for her Chequers Brexit deal in Europe was thrown into turmoil after all 27 EU member state leaders dashed her hopes of progress and agreed it “will not work.”

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