US war with China more likely, deadlier: RAND Corp.

The possibility of a military confrontation between the United States and China has increased over the past years, warns a US military think tank, noting that such a war would be deadlier than aver.

The RAND Corporation, which is based in California, said in its latest report that China’s military advancements and reforms have turned the country into a formidable foe, the Newsweek reported Wednesday.

Titled "Conflict with China Revisited," the report is a sequel to a similar report in 2011 and examines a range of contemporary scenarios that could prove to be catalysts for such a confrontation.

Topping the list of issues that might ignite a war between China and the US was the ongoing tensions over North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

North Korea crisis

US President Donald Trump has not only threatened North Korea with military action, he has also imposed a series of sanctions against Chinese companies in a bid to force Beijing—as Pyongyang’s main trade ally—to help end North Korea’s military programs.

RAND said it was unlikely that China would defend North Korea from a potential US strike. However, Beijing was expected to defend its own interests, a move that the authors of the report said would likely clash with Washington’s objectives and possibly lead to a larger conflict.

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“The likelihood of confrontations, accidental or otherwise, between U.S. and Chinese forces would be high, with significant potential for escalation," the 16-page report read.

"Beyond the pressures to intervene and deal with the immediate consequences of a failed North Korea, the United States would confront the thorny issue of the desired end state: unification (the preferred outcome of South Korea) or the continued division of Korea (China’s preference)," it added.

Chinese diplomat Liu Jieyi said last week that the crisis was "getting too dangerous."

South China Sea

China’s sovereignty claim over the whole of South China Sea was another important source of tension that RAND said might trigger a military confrontation.

The US has long been accusing China of running a land reclamation program in the disputed waters, which act as a gateway for $5 trillion in annual maritime trade.

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Taiwan and the One China policy

Ties between China and the US have been strained over Washington’s major military deals with Taiwan, a self-ruled island that Beijing views as part of its territory.

Before his inauguration, Trump angered Chinese leaders by talking to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. China slammed the move as a violation of the “One China” policy, which the US recognized in 1979.

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In late September, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his visiting US counterpart Rex Tillerson in Beijing that Washington must respect Beijing’s concerns on Taiwan to avoid creating disturbances in bilateral relations.

"We still do not believe that a Chinese-US military conflict is probable in any of the cases, but our margin of confidence is somewhat lower than it was six years ago," RAND concluded in the report.

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