Russia seeks to deter Kiev from possible offensive: Analyst

Press TV has conducted an interview with Mark Sleboda, an international relations and security analyst, about Russia’s military forces staging massive snap military drills in districts close to the border with Ukraine and the Baltic states, putting ground troopers as well as airmen and marines on full combat readiness for possible future operations.

Here is a rough transcription of the interview:

Press TV: What kind of a message is Russia sending to NATO?

Sleboda: Well these snap military exercises I think are less a message to NATO than they are a check of Russia’s military preparedness but also a message to the West-backed regime that seized power in Kiev a few years ago. This regime has been staging provocations in the Crimea with several attempted terrorist attacks within the last month, also with attempted assassination attempts on the leaders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions which are a breakaway from this putsch government in Kiev, the most recent of those the attempt on Zakharchenko  just occurred in the last hours and also an increase in the amount of shelling that Ukrainian forces are continuing across the contact line in Donbass on these republics.   

All this is an indication of increasing pressure - I believe provocations - to try to lure Russia into an attack. There are also signs of Ukrainian military build-up across the border in Crimea. So I think Russia with these snap military exercises is actually sending a message to the regime in Kiev to try to deter them from a possible offensive attempt in Donbass.

Press TV: So many people would say that President Putin has been very restraint in reactions to all provocations, although obviously the mainstream media would term otherwise, but I am wondering how important has that restraint reaction been? How important is it that President Putin is so calculated in how he reacts?  

Sleboda: Well I think it is more than restraint. I think that is an understatement. In the past month we have seen Ukrainian saboteurs, would-be terrorists, in the Crimea that killed Russian servicemen and intelligence agents while being fooled in the attempt of their operations. This is a huge provocation. The shelling of the Donbass and civilians continues unabated. The fact that Russia has not responded, they even indicated at one point that they would, that there would be a price to pay but then seemed to back down from this, realizing that the regime in Kiev is simply trying to lure them into a resumption of military activities because of their unwillingness to fulfill the Minsk’s political protocols.

There has actually been a lot of, shall we say, unrest in Russia that the Russian government has not taken firmer action and I believe that this is a commitment that President Putin has made to seriously try to avoid military conflict with the West which is openly backing this putsch regime in Kiev at all costs.

Press TV: And I want to use the phrase that President Obama used “red line”. Do you think that we are approaching some sort of a red line that Russia may have about, how much more it can really take?

Sleboda: I think several red lines have been crossed, the most serious of those of course was the Western backing of a putsch in Ukraine and the subsequent military attempts of this new regime to seize control of the rest of the country but all these continued provocations, the announcement of the permanent stationing of NATO troops, the activation of missile defense in Romania and soon to be in Poland, all of these are red lines for Russia.

In fact recently the Russian President made a statement to some German journalists saying that he does not understand why you and why your audience is not scared because I am scared about the situation and I do not know how to get through to you how serious it is anymore. So I think that is an indication of how far Russia feels pushed on its red lines.

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