Crimean border incidents may lead to war: Analyst

Press TV has conducted an interview with Bill Jones, a member of the Executive Intelligence Review, about Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev saying that Moscow could break diplomatic relations with Kiev over the security incidents in Crimea.

Here is a rough transcription of the interview:

Press TV: How much of an escalation is this?

Jones: Well it is a very serious escalation. Obviously if they did break relations with Ukraine I think you would hear a lot more on the military front than we have seen up until now. The unfortunate thing here is that the fact that the West has pretty much demonized Vladimir Putin it is hard for them, either the US or Germany, to intervene in this situation and try to bring it to some kind of a peaceful resolution.

Of course the Russians were very upset at some of the provocations that they accused Ukraine of doing against Crimea, we cannot verify that but given the general attitude of the Ukrainian government it is certainly not beyond the doubt that these provocations did occur and therefore it has led to an escalation on both parts.

Now if there is no ability of dialogue which breaking ties would essentially be at an end, then there is a difficulty in getting the situation resolved but it has not gotten there yet. It seems to me that there is presently a tit for tat in order to find some movement on one of the two sides so that the situation starts to de-escalate.

Press TV: And do you think we are heading for a full-scale violence of some sort?

Jones: Well I think we have been closer to the outbreak of war over the last six months than we have seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The situation in Ukraine on the Crimean border is just one example but the mobilization of NATO troops along the Russian border has created a situation which I think it is not simply a Cold War but it is like a pre-war situation and that even though neither the parties intends to go to military conflict, the situation itself only needs a little spark, an incident to occur to create a much greater conflagration. So that the increase of tensions on the Crimean border compared to everything else that is going on in the relationship between Russia and the West is a very serious situation and can very well lead to military conflict that ultimately may not be controllable.

Press TV: So then who would this benefit? Who would such a conflict or who benefits from such escalation?

Jones: Well of course nobody is going to benefit but there has been this refusal on the part of the West since the taking of Crimea which I think did have a reasonable position from the Russian side that they did have reason to fear, the Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet and part of their major defenses would be going down the tubes or maybe taken over by NATO, so that the actions they took on that have a legitimacy but this has never been accepted by NATO and instead they have refused to engage in any meaningful talks with Russia until they would leave Crimea.

So it is a situation that is totally locked at this point. Nobody would benefit from that, nobody is going to benefit from the outbreak of war, everybody is going to lose but it requires some forces now, especially here in the West to begin to realize that we are moving on a way to war and we have to give another direction to things and especially here in Washington where people have their blinders on totally and unless that changes I think we are going to have a very serious situation as we move ahead.  

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