No political will in Kiev for new peace deal: Analyst

Press TV has conducted an interview with Joaquin Flores, a member of the Center for Syncretic Studies in Belgrade, to discuss the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.

The following is a rough transcription of the interview.

Press TV: Now August 26, what do you think is going to take place in that meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE?

Flores: I think that when we look at the meeting which is in a scope of the war like this, it is quite some time away. And I think what is happening now is that all sides have agreed to see what new facts on the ground can be created from the recent skirmish, from the recent outbreak of hostilities.

What I do not expect will happen is anything like a Minsk III sort of agreement like we saw with Minsk II six months ago. I do not think that there is the political will on the side of Ukraine. And I think also the people of Donbas would not support such a thing given that the Ukrainian side failed to implement so many features within Minsk II agreement.

So I think that going to the table on the 26th that Russia will have the evidence, then it will be able to show the international community that the Ukrainian side did not live up to the agreement and so if anything at all, it will be an opportunity to bring back alive these certain key elements of this agreement but they, really under no circumstances, will be able to create a new agreement that will nullify the old one.   

Press TV: But I guess the question here now is that after this meeting will we see these hostilities increase in eastern Ukraine or will they simmer down a bit?

Flores: I think that between now and that time that the Ukrainian effort will probably as it has done time and time again face a crashing defeat on the battle field, the Ukrainian forces have forced their conscripts and they have such a low morale and they are unwilling by and large, the vast majority of these Ukrainian soldiers unwilling, to engage in a conflict with people they see as their own people and to shell innocent civilians.

On the other hand, of course you have fairly good morale on the side of these breakaway republics which are primarily volunteers, are not forced conscripts, and they do this voluntarily because their own family members are the victims of these shelling.

So I think these two very different motivating factors will play out in such a way that coming out of any renewed agreement to restore peace on the 26th will be on the basis of a tremendous advantage gained by these breakaway republics.   

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