Iran on course to regain OPEC position

Industry observers say Iran is able to reclaim its position as the second largest oil producer in OPEC once US-led sanctions are lifted.

Iran has said it could add a million barrels to daily oil production shortly after a deal to lift sanctions.

Minister of Petroleum Bijan Namdar Zangeneh says Iran would bring its oil production to 3.8 million “within a few months” placing it behind only Saudi Arabia in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“While such a boost would take months because sanctions may be rolled back slowly, industry observers agree the capacity is there,” Bloomberg admitted.

The International Energy Agency, a Paris-based adviser to 29 nations on energy policy, says Iran could pump 3.6 million barrels a day within three months of the removal of sanctions.

The country has been making preparations to bring its crude back to the market.

 The National Iranian Oil Co. is already in talks with at least three buyers in Asia to sell them more crude if the restrictions are lifted, Bloomberg claimed, citing people with direct knowledge of the discussions.

Beyond its plans for restoring pre-sanctions output, Iran seeks to add a further one million barrels a day to production capacity by developing fields straddling its borders with neighbors, Zangeneh says.

“Iran has remarkable potential for growth in production capacity,” Leonardo Maugeri, an associate at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, has told Bloomberg.

Maugeri was head of strategy at Italy’s Eni SpA until 2011 and worked on oil and natural gas projects in Iran.

“Iran could explode in terms of production” if it opens to investment and improves contract terms for foreign companies, he said.

Zangeneh met with executives from BP Plc, Shell, Total SA and OAO Lukoil before the November OPEC meeting in Vienna and said all of those companies want to work in Iran after sanctions are lifted.

Lukoil would like to return to Iran when possible, Chief Executive Officer Vagit Alekperov said after the Vienna meeting.  

Areas where Iran can add capacity are the Azadegan and Yadaravan deposits along the country’s border with Iraq.

Iran is going ahead with development of the South Pars natural gas field located offshore in the Persian Gulf.

The deposit will raise production of condensate, a light oil found along with gas deposits, that will add to Iran’s liquid exports.

“Iran is one of the wild cards, one of the potential big surprises of the next five years,” said Maugeri of Harvard.

“The country really has the ability to arrive in a relatively short period of time, let’s say five years, at production capacity of 5 million barrels a day of crude.”

HB/HB

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